The dollar’s influence on Bitcoin’s trajectory
Bitcoin enters the final quarter of 2025 following a rather turbulent September, and honestly, the market seems a bit confused about where things are headed. Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin can actually catch up with the broader crypto market’s recent gains. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, makes an interesting point about seasonal patterns—while Q1 and Q4 have historically been strong for digital assets, he thinks the real driver isn’t the calendar but rather the strength of the U.S. dollar.
“The dollar is the swing factor,” Coutts explained. Central banks have started cutting interest rates, which provides some liquidity support, but he believes the true market direction comes from balance sheet expansion and how the dollar index behaves. The DXY saw one of its steepest declines in decades earlier this year, which was part of why Coutts turned bullish back in April.
Now with the index stabilizing around 98-99, the next move—whether it’s a retest of 101 or a breakdown below current levels—will be crucial for risk assets including Bitcoin. It’s not just about crypto fundamentals; it’s about global monetary conditions.
Portfolio strategy and altcoin rotation
Coutts keeps Bitcoin as the core of his portfolio, which makes sense given its established position. But what’s interesting is that he’s been steadily moving into smart contract platforms since March. His focus is on networks showing strong growth in settlement volumes and fees—Solana, Sui, Hyperliquid, and Tron specifically.
Tron carries some reputational baggage with Justin Sun’s involvement, but Coutts points to its consistent on-chain growth and token buybacks as positive factors. Hyperliquid, being newer, also gets a spot in his allocation strategy. As the business cycle expands, he expects capital to shift from Bitcoin into altcoins, potentially accelerating altcoin outperformance through late Q4 and into 2026.
Why the $125K peak wasn’t the top
This is where things get particularly interesting. Coutts argues that Bitcoin’s July peak around $125,000 didn’t show the typical signs of a major market top according to the Bitcoin Cycle Risk Score. Past cycle peaks were marked by extreme euphoria, surging funding rates, and heavy selling by long-term holders—none of which really appeared this time around.
While technical charts do show some bearish divergences that might suggest a top, the absence of a parabolic move and relatively quiet derivatives activity point to a slower cycle with more room to run. Global liquidity trends and central bank easing support the view that the true peak might come closer to mid-2026 rather than now.
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between support and resistance levels without a clear breakout. A move above $115,940 would strengthen the bullish case with higher targets in play, while dropping below $112,820 could signal more downside pressure. The market seems to be waiting for clearer signals, and honestly, I think many traders are just watching and waiting to see which way things break.
It’s worth noting that while analysts have their predictions, the crypto market has a habit of surprising everyone. The mid-2026 timeline seems plausible given current conditions, but market sentiment can shift quickly based on regulatory developments, macroeconomic factors, or unexpected events. For now, the consolidation continues, and the debate about Bitcoin’s next major move remains very much alive.
