Bitcoin’s 2020 pattern repeats but timeline differs
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, made some interesting observations about Bitcoin’s current trajectory. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s September performance closely mirrored what happened back in September 2020. The cryptocurrency held the bull market support band throughout the month, showing two weeks of growth followed by two weeks of sideways movement. It’s almost like watching a replay, but with different actors on stage.
What’s curious though is that despite this similarity to the 2020 pattern, Cowen doesn’t think we’ll see the same extended timeline play out. He’s been pretty consistent about this view, even while acknowledging the pattern similarities. In the previous cycle, 2020 was actually the penultimate year before the peak. Bitcoin closed that year around $29,000, then went on to hit $69,000 in November 2021.
Why 2025 might be different
Cowen expects Bitcoin to follow its historical cycle pattern and reach its peak sometime in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s his main thesis, and he’s sticking to it despite the current market showing some 2020-like characteristics. I find it interesting how he maintains this position even while pointing out the pattern similarities. It suggests he sees other factors at play that might accelerate the cycle.
Perhaps the market dynamics have changed enough that we can’t simply copy-paste previous cycles. The institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and overall market maturity might be compressing timelines in ways we haven’t fully appreciated yet.
Not everyone agrees with the timeline
There’s definitely some disagreement in the analyst community about this prediction. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has been pretty vocal about his belief that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer valid. He’s predicting Bitcoin could continue rallying into 2026, which would extend the current cycle beyond Cowen’s projection.
Market strategist Raoul Pal shares this extended timeline view, calling this a “business cycle” rather than following the typical crypto pattern. He sees the peak potentially arriving in the second quarter of 2026. That’s quite a bit later than Cowen’s fourth quarter 2025 prediction.
The broader consensus
What’s notable is that several other prominent figures in the space seem to lean toward the extended cycle view. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor all appear to share similar sentiments about the current bull cycle having more runway.
It creates an interesting tension in market expectations. On one hand, we have historical patterns suggesting certain timelines. On the other, we have voices pointing to fundamental shifts that might alter those patterns. Personally, I think both perspectives have merit. The crypto market has matured significantly since 2020, but human psychology and market cycles tend to have some consistency.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Maybe we’ll see a peak in late 2025 as Cowen suggests, but with different characteristics than previous cycles. Or perhaps the institutional involvement will indeed stretch the timeline. Either way, it’s worth watching how these different predictions play out over the coming months.
