The Sideways Grind Explained
It’s been frustrating for bitcoin bulls to watch traditional risk assets hit record highs while BTC price action remains muted. But according to longtime asset manager Jordi Visser, we might be looking at this all wrong. His weekend essay comparing bitcoin’s current phase to a “silent IPO” has gone viral, and I think he makes some interesting points worth considering.
Visser argues that while bitcoin never had a traditional initial public offering, the factors limiting price gains are nearly identical to what happens after stock IPOs. Particularly in tech, IPOs represent major liquidity events for early investors who took enormous risks. They deserve their rewards, but eventually they need to realize those gains. They need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify.
The Facebook IPO Parallel
Consider the Facebook IPO back in 2012. The offering at $38 per share raised $16 billion at a $104 billion valuation. One year later, the stock was 30% lower. Was this due to missteps by Mark Zuckerberg? More likely, it was early investors using public markets to realize life-changing profits.
What’s important, Visser notes, is that these early investors don’t hit the bid all at once. They’re methodically distributing their positions. They’re being careful. They don’t want to crater the price. They’ve waited years for this moment and can wait a few more months to do it right. The result? A sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.
On-Chain Evidence
The on-chain data tells a clear story if you know how to read it. Old coins that haven’t moved in years, some dormant since the single-digit price days, are suddenly active. The ETFs, institutional adoption, and friendly regulatory environment created IPO-like conditions for bitcoin’s early believers.
For years, the liquidity simply didn’t exist. Try selling $100 million of bitcoin in 2015—you’d crater the price. Try selling $1 billion in 2019—same problem. The market couldn’t absorb it. But now, ETFs are providing institutional bid. Major companies hold bitcoin on their balance sheets. Sovereign wealth funds are getting involved. The market has finally matured to the point where early holders can exit significant positions without causing chaos.
Distribution Phase, Not Bear Market
What’s occurring now isn’t really a bear market but rather a distribution of ownership. Over the long run, this is actually a bullish event, though the process can take 6-18 months in traditional markets. Even though cycles often get sped up in crypto, Visser suspects there could be many more months of this frustrating price action.
Sentiment will only improve after the distribution is substantially complete. People are demoralized because they don’t understand what phase we’re in. They’re waiting for bitcoin to catch up to stocks. They’re worried about the four-year cycle. But perhaps we just need to be patient. Once the heavy selling pressure lifts, once the patient accumulation by institutions has absorbed the original supply, the path becomes clearer.
