Bitcoin’s Precarious Position
Bitcoin’s trading on November 12, 2025, showed a market caught between cautious optimism and technical resistance. The cryptocurrency traded between $104,779 and $105,153 in the last hour, hovering near the top of its daily range of $102,461 to $105,257. With a market capitalization of $2.09 trillion and $64.60 billion in 24-hour trading volume, bitcoin maintained its position but faced significant headwinds.
Looking at the broader picture, bitcoin remains in a downtrend after falling from its $124,220 high to a low of $98,898. There’s some suggestion of a possible double bottom forming around the $99,000 level, with recent green candles indicating at least an attempt at recovery. But the volume tells a different story—it’s been fading as prices rise, which makes me wonder about the strength of any bullish conviction.
Short-Term Strength Meets Long-Term Skepticism
On the 4-hour chart, things look a bit more promising. Bitcoin climbed from $99,192 to $107,465 in what appears to be a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Even after dipping to $103,000, the quick recovery suggests there are still traders willing to buy the dips. The $103,000–$104,000 support zone seems to be holding for now, but I think any break below that range could quickly unravel the short-term uptrend.
The hourly chart shows the most immediate bullish activity, with a sharp rebound from $102,442 to $105,500. Green volume spikes support this move, suggesting shorter-term traders are actively participating. However, that $105,500 resistance level is proving difficult to overcome—it’s acting like a stubborn barrier that needs significant volume to break through.
Mixed Signals from Technical Indicators
Technical indicators are giving mixed messages, which isn’t surprising given the current market conditions. The RSI sits at 45, stochastic at 39, CCI at -56, ADX at 26, and awesome oscillator at -4,800—all essentially neutral readings. Momentum shows some directional bias at -5,506, but the MACD at -2,271 leans toward weakness. It’s the kind of setup where you could make arguments for either direction.
Moving averages tell a familiar story of short-term strength meeting long-term skepticism. The 10-period EMA and SMA around $104,000 provide some support, but from the 20-period through the 200-period, both exponential and simple moving averages trend downward above $106,000. Without a confident close above $110,000 backed by strong volume, the current trend remains vulnerable to sudden shifts.
Potential Scenarios Ahead
If bitcoin can maintain its position above the $103,000–$104,000 support and break through $105,500 with conviction, we might see a move toward $110,000 resistance. Sustained volume on upward moves and confirmation of that double bottom pattern would help shift momentum toward a broader recovery.
On the other hand, failure to hold above $103,000—especially with those longer-term moving averages pressing downward—could lead to a retest of $99,000 or lower. Given the fading volume on rebounds and conflicted momentum indicators, the current bounce risks being temporary unless bulls demonstrate stronger follow-through. It’s one of those moments where the market seems to be waiting for a clearer signal before committing to a direction.
