ETF Demand Slows After Strong Start

XRP spot ETFs have seen six consecutive weeks of inflows, but the momentum has clearly cooled. The run started strong in mid-November with over $240 million in net inflows during the first week. That pattern continued through early December, pushing cumulative net inflows above $1.01 billion.

But here’s the thing—the most recent data shows a sharp drop. The week ending December 16 added just $19.44 million, down from $93.57 million the previous week. So while the headline says “six weeks of inflows,” the reality is that demand has slowed significantly. This cooling helps explain why XRP’s price hasn’t responded to the earlier inflow strength.

On-Chain Data Reveals Mixed Signals

If ETF demand were the only factor, maybe we could understand the price action better. But on-chain metrics show a more complicated picture. One concerning signal is the percent of XRP supply last active more than one year ago. That metric jumped from 48.75% on December 2 to 51.00%, reaching its highest level in about a month.

When older coins start moving, it often means long-held supply is becoming active. That can add sell pressure even without panic selling. But here’s where it gets interesting—another long-term holder group is behaving differently.

The Hodler net position change metric for wallets holding XRP longer than 155 days shows selling pressure easing. Net outflows peaked around 216.86 million XRP on December 11, then declined to about 154.57 million XRP by December 16. That’s a reduction of roughly 29% in net selling.

So we have this mixed picture. Some long-term supply is waking up, which is typically bearish. But some of those same holders are selling less aggressively. This has helped XRP avoid a sharp breakdown, at least for now.

Price Action Reflects the Balance

XRP’s price is trading inside a falling wedge pattern, stuck in the middle of its recent range. The token is up about 2.3% over the past 24 hours, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. It’s still down roughly 14% over the past month and about 8.5% over the last seven days.

For bulls, the level that matters is $2.28. A daily close above that would break the wedge pattern and imply roughly 19% upside from current levels. That would shift momentum back toward buyers.

But downside risk feels more immediate to me. If XRP loses $1.74, the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the chart opens toward $1.59. There’s a deeper extension near $1.41 if broader market weakness continues.

The Current Stalemate

Right now, ETF inflows alone aren’t enough to move the price. With demand cooling and on-chain signals split, XRP remains stuck between support holding and sellers slowly regaining control. Unless the Hodler net position change metric flips to net buying, price bounces might not hold.

I think one theory could be that the coin movement has already happened, and these holders are waiting to sell into price bounces. That would explain why we’re seeing this stalemate. The data suggests we’re in a waiting game—waiting to see if ETF demand picks up again, or if on-chain selling pressure increases.

It’s a delicate balance, and right now, neither side seems to have enough conviction to break the pattern.