Prediction market users are increasingly betting that Bitcoin will fall below $70,000 before May ends, as the top cryptocurrency continues its weekly slide.
Bitcoin was down about 3% in the last 24 hours, trading at $72,739. That puts it just 3.9% above the $70,000 level. Overnight, it hit a six-week low of $72,669, according to CoinGecko.
This price action has shaken up the prediction markets. On Myriad, a platform run by Decrypt’s parent company, the odds for Bitcoin hitting under $70,000 before May ends have jumped more than 240% in the last day. But they still sit at just 27%.
On Polymarket, traders give similar odds—about 26%—for the same event.
Liquidations and ETF Outflows Pressure Prices
The sell-off has been fueled in part by heavy crypto liquidations. In the last 24 hours, nearly $924 million in positions were liquidated. Most of that—$851 million—came from long positions, meaning bets that prices would go up got wiped out.
ETF outflows are also a factor. Bitcoin ETFs lost more than $1 billion in the last two days alone. On Wednesday, $733 million left those products, according to Farside Investors. Over the current eight-day losing streak, more than $2.6 billion has exited.
An analyst from Arctic Digital told Decrypt the slide is “partly due to ETF outflows, with serious amounts getting out.”
Bearish but Not Panicked Yet
Despite growing bearishness, predictors aren’t bracing for a deeper crash in the immediate short term. The odds of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 before May ends are just 3% on Myriad.
Take away the time constraint, though, and the outlook turns darker. On Polymarket, traders see a 54% chance Bitcoin will dip below $55,000 in 2026, and a 42% chance it trades below $50,000.
Earlier this year, CryptoQuant called $55,000 the “ultimate bear market bottom.” Analysts at Standard Chartered suggested Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 before rebounding to $100,000.
Bitcoin is now more than 42% off its all-time high of $126,080.
