Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 this week, shaking the crypto market. But some analysts think this move might be bringing the leading cryptocurrency into a rare price area that has historically marked major market bottoms.
Bitcoin Enters a Historical Support Cluster
The latest dip pushed Bitcoin to an intraday low of $59,791 before it recovered above $61,000. This decline came just days after Strategy disclosed a partial Bitcoin sale, which added fresh pressure to an already weak market.
According to Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Bitcoin has now moved into a cluster of valuation levels that have historically acted as support during significant drops. One notable signal is that Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder’s breakeven price for the first time since December 2022.
The asset is also trading around two closely watched levels: the Median Realized Price near $64,100 and the 200-week moving average around $61,700. Rafael noted that only about 7% of Bitcoin’s trading history has been spent below this median MVRV level. That suggests the market is entering territory rarely seen outside major cycle lows.
Glassnode Points to a Likely Bottom Range
While several valuation models are flashing support signals, Rafael believes one metric stands out. The Cyclical Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model, currently near $46,200, has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most accurate bottom indicators. In previous cycles, Bitcoin repeatedly found its final low close to this level before starting a recovery.
Based on the current framework, Rafael sees the highest-probability bottom zone between Bitcoin’s Realized Price around $54,000 and the CVDD level near $46,000. A deeper capitulation remains possible, but it seems less likely now. Below that sits a lower support range between $35,000 and $40,000, a zone that Bitcoin has visited during less than 3% of its trading history.
Why This Cycle Might Be Different
Rafael also pointed out that Bitcoin’s drawdowns have become less severe over time. Earlier bear markets saw declines of more than 80%, while the current cycle has fallen roughly 50% from its peak so far. That trend suggests Bitcoin may not need a dramatic collapse to complete its correction.
For bulls, the next challenge is reclaiming higher levels. Rafael identified the $75,000 to $79,000 range as the first major recovery zone, where several important market indicators now converge. If history repeats, the market may be approaching the area where long-term buyers begin stepping back in.
