Bitcoin fund exposure is shrinking fast. Data from CryptoQuant shows trusts, ETFs, and closed-end funds together held 1.33 million BTC in May. That number has since fallen to 1.20 million BTC. It is a roughly 10% drop in three months, and analysts say the weakness is not limited to funds.
A squeeze on corporate treasuries
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries are feeling similar pressure. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, sold 1,638 BTC last week. It remains the largest public company holder, but the sale stands out because the firm had built its position through a specific loop. Shares traded above the value of the underlying Bitcoin, which let the company issue equity or debt, buy more Bitcoin, and keep that premium alive. When market caps fall below net asset value, that financing becomes dilutive. The loop weakens. Contributing analyst Novaque Research told CryptoQuant that such a mechanism is “breaking.”
How bad is the discount? It depends on how you count. Basic share count puts Strategy’s discount near 0.7 as of Thursday. But once $8 billion in debt and the liquidation preference of its preferred stock are included, the adjusted mNAV comes to 1.03. In other words, the stock may no longer be cheap once liabilities are considered.
CryptoQuant cautions that its on-chain evidence cannot directly isolate treasury companies. Still, the broader trend points to a loss of institutional interest.
Coinbase Premium stays negative for 93 days
The fund drawdown comes at the same time as a strange record. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between Coinbase and Binance for BTC/USDT, has been negative for 93 straight days. That is the longest streak on record, according to CryptoQuant. It started in early May and has not flipped positive since.
Some analysts see this as a demand problem rather than aggressive selling. Web3 marketing platform FOUR argued this week that the negative reading does not come from blanket U.S. selling pressure. In its view, institutional buying from U.S. investors looks muted. Until the premium turns positive, a meaningful Bitcoin price recovery may stay out of reach.
Citi made a similar point last month in a note quoted by Reuters. The bank cut its Bitcoin price forecast to $53,000 through 2027 and pointed to ETF flows as an important driver of prices. Right now, those flows are not supporting the market the way they once did.
It is too early to call the bottom. Fund holdings have fallen before and recovered. But the data makes one thing clear: the easiest days for Bitcoin’s institutional trade, at least for now, are behind it. The next move might depend on whether U.S. buyers return and whether the Coinbase Premium can shake off its record negative run.
