After a rough pullback, Bitcoin is trying to hold its ground. But the market may not get a clear signal until the monthly candle closes. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has been watching Bitcoin’s interaction with its long-term macro downtrend line and thinks the latest retest is encouraging.
Retest of the Long-Term Downtrend Line
According to Rekt Capital, BTC has retested the same trend line that previously capped upside moves. That line now overlaps closely with the peak region from April and May 2026. A push back above that zone means the breakout is still technically intact. If the price falls below the line again, the setup quickly loses its bullish edge.
Context matters more than a single hourly chart here. The market often moves above or below these lines during short-term swings. The real test, the analyst argues, is whether Bitcoin can stay above the level and turn old resistance into support.
Monthly Close Above $76,000
Rekt Capital puts a lot of weight on the monthly close. For the bullish view to continue, the monthly candle should close above roughly $76,000. That is where the downtrend line sits at the moment. At the time of writing, BTC is changing hands around $79,509, down by 1.59% over the last 24 hours. So Bitcoin has some room above the key level, but not a huge buffer if selling pressure returns.
If the price closes below the downtrend line at the end of the month, the current move could turn into a long upper wick. That type of candle would probably weaken the breakout and give bears more confidence. On the other hand, a monthly close above $76,000 would strengthen the technical view that Bitcoin has flipped its long-term downtrend into support.
That said, even this setup leaves room for doubt. A single monthly close is important, but it is not a guarantee. Unexpected news, thinner liquidity, or another shift in risk appetite can change things quickly. Right now, the level itself is clear. The market just has to prove it can hold it.
