Bitcoin traded near $79,200 on Sept. 9, recovering from its June low. Market maker Wintermute says the current downturn has been milder than the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. That claim needs a closer look.
Wintermute’s 50% figure needs context
Wintermute said Bitcoin was about 50% below its peak roughly 340 days after the cycle high. In 2018 and 2022, losses at the same stage were above 75%. But the 50% figure does not match the Sept. 9 spot price. Bitcoin’s October 2025 record was about $125,653. At $79,200, it is roughly 37% below that peak. The 50% number better describes the deepest drawdown earlier in this cycle. Independent data from Hashrate Index put the June trough near 52.6% below the record. July closed at $63,577, and August’s rally cut the drawdown further. So the broad point stands: this cycle has not produced the 75% to 80% collapse seen after earlier peaks. Whether that means the market has matured is still open.
ETF flows help, but do not prove a floor
Wintermute partly credits spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buyers for entering earlier during weakness. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $987 million in the week ended Sept. 4. That was their third straight positive week, bringing inflows over that stretch to roughly $3.8 billion. Daily flows were uneven, though. A $731 million inflow on Sept. 3 was followed by about $175 million on Sept. 4, then outflows as the new week started. Regulated products clearly added demand during the recovery. They do not prove ETFs made the June bottom or removed Bitcoin’s downside risk. ETF shares can be sold quickly too.
Macro and technicals test the recovery
A stronger U.S. payrolls report briefly pushed Bitcoin from about $82,400 to below $80,000. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, and unemployment stayed at 4.1%. That reduced hopes for near-term Fed easing. Crypto held up better than some traders expected, but one week is not a lasting break from macro forces. Technical readings also show cooling momentum. The RSI was 62.18, below its moving average. The MACD line slipped under its signal line. Lower volume after the rebound suggests fewer buyers chased the price. Wintermute sees $82,000 as resistance to clear and $72,000 as the level that would weaken its constructive view.
What comes next
The Fed meets Sept. 15 and 16, and inflation data will land around the same time. ETF flows will matter as well. If inflows continue, Wintermute’s argument gains support. If outflows persist and Bitcoin falls below $72,000, the shallower-bottom theory will face a harder test. For now, the evidence supports a narrow conclusion: this cycle’s drawdown is smaller so far, but it is not proof that future bear markets will stay mild.
