SOPR streak extends into third week
Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio has stayed above 1 since Aug. 19, according to CryptoQuant. The metric tracks whether coins moved onchain are being spent at a profit or loss relative to their last transaction. A reading above 1 means most coins are moving at a profit, which often points to positive market momentum. At the time of writing, SOPR sits at 1.002. It has now held above breakeven for three weeks. That is the longest bullish run for the metric in 2026.
The move is notable because SOPR usually trades in a tight band around 1. It does not often stay above that line for long, especially when Bitcoin is stuck in a range. The current streak suggests that sellers are not rushing to dump coins at a loss. Instead, coins that change hands are more likely to do so with gains.
Short-term holder data draws attention
Checkonchain pointed to the short-term holder version of SOPR. This group includes wallets that have held coins for up to six months. In bear markets, short-term holders often sell into rallies once they get back to profit. In bull markets, brief drops below breakeven tend to look like buying chances. Checkonchain said the current structure is beginning to look more like early bull-market recoveries.
That does not confirm a new uptrend by itself. It is one signal among many, and onchain metrics can shift quickly. Still, the comparison matters because it challenges the idea that Bitcoin remains locked in a typical bearish phase. If short-term holders keep holding through profit, the market may be building a stronger base.
Puell still sees downside risk
Not everyone is ready to call the bear market finished. David Puell, the ARK Invest portfolio manager who created the Puell multiple, told CryptoQuant on Sept. 4 that he still sees downside risk. He said more evidence is needed before assuming the next bear-market floor is already in. Asked about Bitcoin’s 25% August rally and its path into Q4, Puell said further upside is the less likely outcome for now. He left the bias as a downside risk.
Puell said SOPR is a key signal to watch. For his longer-term view to change, the metric likely needs to stay above 1 for an extended period. Investors would also need to keep realizing profits without price falling back to a new low. Bitcoin would then need to print higher highs and higher lows. Cointelegraph has reported that such a pattern is still missing on weekly time frames.
Mixed signals leave the market at a crossroads
The split is easy to see. SOPR and short-term holder data suggest improvement. Price structure and analyst caution suggest the market has not escaped risk. Bitcoin is holding a local range near $80,000 while both sides make their case. In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the bear market was already over, based on the firm’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator. That view now competes with Puell’s warning.
For traders, the next few weeks may matter more than any single print. If SOPR stays above 1 and price avoids a new macro low, the bull case gets stronger. If profit-taking returns and higher lows fail to form, the downside risk remains live.
