After a strong summer, crypto sentiment has cooled. Bitcoin was trading just above $82,000 on Monday, down nearly 5% for the week. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 56, a neutral reading, after hitting extreme greed in late August. That 0-to-100 gauge measures investor appetite. It peaked at 82 on Aug. 26 and stood at 68 a month ago. So the mood has shifted fast. The reading is back near pre-rally August levels.

Bitcoin hit $86,978 early last week, then slid to $81,749.83 on Oct. 8, a drop of about 6%. It recovered to roughly $83,800 by Monday. The largest crypto remains about 34% below its all-time high above $126,000, set on Oct. 6, 2025. Back then, extreme greed was normal.

ETF Flows Show Caution

Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million last Wednesday, their worst day since June. They lost another $244.1 million the next day. A $21.1 million inflow on Friday left the funds down a net $386.3 million for October. Ethereum funds extended their outflow streak to nine days, with $635 million out this month. That is not panic, perhaps, but it is a clear pullback in demand.

Macro Pressure Builds

Macro conditions have not helped. Brent crude topped $101 a barrel last week as ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz increased. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, its highest since 2002. Stocks, gold and Bitcoin sold off together that day, which points to a macro trade rather than a crypto-specific problem. Brent is near $110 today, even after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would not engage in war at least until November.

Oil is an input cost for shipping, manufacturing, farming and travel. A sustained jump in crude can filter into consumer prices. Higher inflation makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and more likely to raise them, which is the path in the latest minutes. Bond investors demand higher yields because inflation erodes fixed payments. The 30-year Treasury at 5.70% pulls money away from riskier bets and raises borrowing costs. Bitcoin pays no yield and trades like a risk asset, so rising yields and rate-hike expectations tend to push it lower.

Prediction Markets Turn Defensive

That backdrop likely explains the index drop. Traders are more cautious, especially with high-risk assets such as Bitcoin. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders give Bitcoin a 45% chance of touching $87,500 in October. That is down from 55% on Oct. 7. The odds of reaching $90,000 slipped to 28% from 36%. Myriad traders also price a 56% chance that Bitcoin drops to $80,000, followed by 33% odds for $77,500 and 20% odds on $75,000.

The August rally had led to a 24.9% gain for Bitcoin. It was enough for Fundstrat co-founder and Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee and Crypto Quant’s Kim Yong Yu to call the end of the bear market. Now, the increased appetite for crypto bets has cooled, at least for now. Seasonal trends usually help this time of year, but they are not helping this month. Sentiment can turn again quickly, yet the current mix of oil, yields and ETF outflows keeps bulls on the defensive.