Santiment looked at the recent drop in Bitcoin and altcoins and came away with a mixed read. The firm says large Bitcoin holders are still adding coins, but the market does not yet show the kind of setup that usually leads to a strong rally.
Price weakness meets steady whale buying
Bitcoin traded near $81,500 in the review, down almost 2% on a weekly basis. Ethereum slipped 2.2%, the total crypto market value fell 1.5%, and trading volume dropped about 7%. Santiment tied part of the weakness to US inflation data and uncertainty around Fed policy, which kept risk appetite low. Bitcoin did recover after testing below $80,000, but the mood stayed cautious. The drop was not limited to crypto. Since September 22, Bitcoin is down about 6.5%, while gold fell 4% to 5%. The S&P 500 lost only about 0.3%.
The more interesting data sits in wallet flows. Addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have added 85,916 BTC since September 18. That is roughly four weeks of accumulation, and it suggests big holders are not rushing for the exits. Still, Santiment says smaller buyers are the problem for a quick rebound. A decline in wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC could signal weaker optimism among individual investors. Historically, prices have done better when large holders accumulate while small holders pull back.
Indicators do not scream buy yet
Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV is around minus 2.3%. That means recent buyers are, on average, sitting on unrealized losses. Negative MVRV can mark areas where buying starts to look interesting, but Santiment says this level is not a strong signal yet. The 365-day MVRV is 0.56%, close to the average cost for long-term holders. RSI is near 46.5, so the market is neither overbought nor oversold. Funding rates on Binance are mostly stable. Exchange-held Bitcoin rose after the early October drop, though Santiment does not see it as a large sell-off warning.
Altcoin activity picks up
Santiment also flagged on-chain activity in several altcoins. Quant stood out with a 234% increase over 30 days and 219% over 90 days. Staked Ethereum, Starknet, Wrapped Bitcoin, Gnosis, LayerZero, Ether.fi, Basic Attention Token, Bitcoin Cash, and Curve were also notable. Top holders of Virtuals Protocol have been accumulating at one of their higher recent levels. But activity alone is not a price signal. It can point to recovery, or it can come before selling pressure if optimism runs too hot.
So should investors panic? Santiment says no major panic has appeared yet. Social sentiment showed bearish comments beating bullish ones about eight days ago, followed by a recovery. Bearish and bullish chatter are now closer to even. Large whale buying, negative short-term MVRV, and mild pessimism are supportive signs. Small-investor buying, stable funding, and macro uncertainty still cap the case for a strong rally.
