A new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that a majority of Americans do not want prediction markets used for elections or government actions. The survey of 4,506 adults nationwide was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5. It found 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed betting on election results through these platforms. That is a rare point of agreement across party lines, though the poll gives only a snapshot.
Where the opposition shows up
The prediction market industry, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, lets users bet on US elections, policy moves and sports. That business has drawn lawsuits involving state and federal agencies over regulatory authority. Even sports betting faced resistance: 43% opposed betting on professional sports, while 29% supported it. Support was lower than opposition in that category.
Regulators are still fighting over control
The Trump administration is pursuing federal rules for the industry through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. States are pushing back. Many expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court. On Oct. 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 US states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief. They argued that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction markets had become a national turf war that cannot be settled without the Supreme Court.
That legal question matters for Polymarket, Kalshi and other platforms. It also matters for users who may not follow the details of federal versus state authority. Blockchain.com has pursued CFTC approval for prediction markets, according to CNBC, which shows more crypto-linked firms are looking at this area.
Tax and market questions remain
The poll does not settle the policy debate. It does show that election betting is not broadly popular. For crypto users, there is another issue: exchanges reporting crypto gains to the IRS has become a tax headache, as Cointelegraph Magazine noted. Prediction markets may be a growing niche, but they are still caught between public skepticism and a regulatory fight with no clear end.
