Bitcoin traded near $78,200 on Monday, up from the $76,100 area hit during last week’s selloff. The move gave bulls a small win after four straight weekly losses in October, though the chart was not out of danger. Bitcoin remained below its 50-day EMA at $80,307, the first real test for buyers. A daily close above it would improve the short-term picture and could open a path toward $85,000, where sellers had shown up before.
Price Action and Technical Levels
The 100-day EMA at $77,831 and the 200-day EMA at $76,471 were still below the current price, so the longer-term setup had not fully broken. Still, the RSI was around 40, under the neutral 50 line, and the MACD was also negative, suggesting buying pressure had not yet confirmed a sustained reversal. If Bitcoin lost $77,831, a retest of $76,471 became more likely, and a close below that would weaken the broader technical picture. Until then, range-bound trading seemed more likely than a clean breakout.
Hack Sparks ETF Outflows
The main trigger for last week’s selling was the Binance hack. The exchange, the largest by trading volume, was hacked for nearly $6.4 billion. Binance froze some assets with help from Tether and Circle. Even so, the reaction from traditional investors was notable. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643 million in net outflows on Friday, the first trading session after the hack. That was a large number and helped explain why the rebound was cautious rather than aggressive.
Options Market Trims Year-End Targets
Derivatives traders also lowered expectations. Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, said the odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before the end of the year had dropped. Derive options priced a 3.5% chance of BTC exceeding $100K by Christmas, down from 6% last Wednesday. The probability of BTC above $90K by December 25 was 14%, while the chance of it being above $80K was 44%. Those numbers suggested traders were not ruling out a recovery, but they were not paying up for one either. Bitcoin may need a clear close above $80,307 before the mood changes in a meaningful way.
