Elon Musk has added another warning to his long list. In a February 2026 podcast appearance, he said the US would go bankrupt as a country without AI and robots. He put his confidence at 1000%. That is not a hedge. It is a direct claim that current growth cannot cover the national debt. US national debt passed $40 trillion in late 2026, with interest payments reported to exceed military spending. Musk’s argument is simple. Without a productivity jump, the bill wins. With AI and robots, maybe it does not. He also treats AI as a threat, which makes the message stranger. The same force he fears is the one he says could save the budget.

JPMorgan puts Bitcoin in long-term assumptions

JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for the first time in October 2026. The report projects a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin through 2036. That is higher than its forecasts for large-cap US stocks and bonds. The case rests on supply. Bitcoin issuance is capped. Money supply is not. Musk has made a similar point, describing Bitcoin as based on energy and contrasting it with fiat currency that governments can print.

Tesla and SpaceX holdings draw attention

The corporate holdings give Musk a direct stake in the debate. Tesla holds 11,509 BTC. SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC. Together that is about 30,221 BTC, reportedly bought at low average costs. There is no evidence that Musk’s posts are meant to move the market. Still, readers should know where the treasuries sit. A public figure warning about fiscal collapse also runs two companies with large Bitcoin positions. That does not prove intent. It does make the overlap worth noting.

What to watch next

The more important signal may be JPMorgan’s forecast, not Musk’s warning. A formal return assumption from a large asset manager can shape how advisers and institutions think about portfolios. It suggests Bitcoin is being modeled as an asset, not just watched as a curiosity. But a 10% forecast is not a promise. A decade is long enough for assumptions to break. For now, watch US fiscal policy and debt-servicing costs. Watch whether other large managers publish Bitcoin assumptions. Watch Tesla and SpaceX filings for any change in holdings. The debt story and the Bitcoin story will probably keep crossing paths.