Bitcoin traded near $74,559 on Monday, up 0.7% after touching a two-month low. The move came as U.S. stocks rebounded. The S&P 500 rose 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.2% by late morning. Brent crude fell 4.3% to about $94 a barrel, giving the broader market a lift even as Nvidia shares slid and spooked tech investors.
The mood is cautious ahead of the October consumer price index report due Tuesday. That data lands after a stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed traders to price in roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Higher rates can pressure risk assets, though crypto does not always follow that script in a straight line.
Crypto derivatives added to the tension. CoinGlass showed $1.2 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, with about $1.04 billion from longs, or bets on higher prices. Bitcoin positions accounted for $324 million, nearly 87% of it in longs. Exchanges liquidate positions when traders can no longer cover losses with posted collateral. That forced selling can exaggerate price moves, and the rebound does not erase the damage.
Weekly Chart Puts $74,400 in Focus
Bitcoin rallied from roughly $57,700 to $87,350 before sliding back toward $75,000. The coin is trading at $74,685 after an early dip to $73,667. The 50-week exponential moving average sits near $78,250, above the 200-week EMA at about $69,790. Their order still favors the longer-term uptrend, but Bitcoin is below the faster average. The gap has narrowed, which raises the possibility of a death cross later.
The Relative Strength Index is at 47.8, close to the midpoint with a slight tilt toward sellers. It is not near 30, the level traders often call oversold. The Average Directional Index reads 21.9, below the 25 threshold for a strong trend, even though its directional indicators give buyers a small edge.
Levels to Watch on Both Sides
On the way down, $74,400 is the first area where buyers could step in. Bitcoin has already traded through it this week, so a weekly close below that level would put $72,550 in view, followed by the $69,000 area around the 200-week EMA. On a rebound, sellers may stall the move near $76,040, then at the 50-week EMA around $78,250. A move through that average would put $80,360 back in play, with the prior rebound high near $87,350 beyond it.
I think the weekly close matters more than intraday noise. Perhaps the CPI report can set the next move. For now, the charts suggest the market is waiting rather than committing.
