A failed breakout
Bitcoin slipped below a level that had supported the bullish case in September. The largest cryptocurrency traded under $73,400 recently, below its 50-week simple moving average of $75,153. That puts price beneath a trend line analysts watch closely.
The drop reverses what looked like a convincing break above the average earlier this year. In September, BTC pushed above the 50-week SMA, and Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn called it evidence that a new bull run had started. His work showed four of five completed bear markets began bull runs after the first weekly close above that average. The exception was 2021 to 2022, when two brief reclaims failed and a deeper selloff followed. For now, the bullish view is invalidated.
ETF outflows and a stronger dollar
The technical failure is happening with weak institutional demand. Spot bitcoin ETFs have seen large outflows recently, a sign that some buyers are holding back.
The dollar is another headwind. The Dollar Index briefly topped 103, its highest since March 2025. A sustained stronger dollar tends to make bitcoin and the wider crypto market less attractive. Wintermute, a major crypto market maker, said it remains cautious while BTC sits under its 50-week average. It pointed to $68k as the next level down and said reclaiming $80k would change its view.
Some see room for a recovery
Not everyone is bearish. Some observers think the dollar rally may be near an end. Markets have largely priced in the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate increase for December, according to the article. Joel Kruger of LMAX Group said much of that hawkishness is already reflected in prices, leaving risk tilted toward profit-taking on dollar longs.
Narrower U.S. yield differentials would take pressure off crypto and could bring buyers back, he said. Kruger added that Fed commentary and Friday’s U.S. producer price inflation report are the next tests. The conflict with Iran also matters through oil prices, where renewed supply pressure could keep inflation concerns elevated. If those catalysts give the dollar little reason to extend gains, he sees scope for bitcoin to lead a recovery.
MSCI and Strategy risk
Some observers are worried that MSCI’s exclusion of Strategy from its indexes could make it harder for the company to raise money for bitcoin purchases. Still, much of that bad news may already be priced in, they added. For now, bitcoin remains below a key trend measure, and the market is watching the dollar, ETF flows, and upcoming U.S. data for the next signal.
