Bitcoin’s hanging around the $115,000 mark this morning in Asia, a little softer after what was a pretty decent start to the week. It’s a slight dip, but nothing too dramatic. The mood feels… mixed, honestly. There’s still some optimism floating around from those U.S. spot ETF inflows and the idea that the Fed might finally cut rates next week. But you can also sense a bit of hesitation. Is this recovery for real, or are we just setting ourselves up for another letdown after last week’s inflation data jitters?
A Fragile Foundation?
The debate is pretty clear if you look at what the analysts are saying. On one side, you’ve got Glassnode pointing out some real fragility. Sure, ETF inflows were way up last week—like, nearly 200%—and futures activity jumped. But the actual spot market? It looks a bit weak underneath it all.
Their take is that buying conviction isn’t all that strong. Funding rates have softened, and a lot of people are taking profits. Actually, more than 92% of the supply is in profit right now. That’s a lot. Options traders are also pulling back on their downside protection, which Glassnode warns could leave the market exposed if things turn sour again. Their core message is simple: the rally’s being propped up by ETFs and futures. Without stronger spot market participation, things could still be shaky.
The Bullish Counter-Argument
Then there’s the other view. QCP Capital over in Singapore thinks crypto is firmly “back on track.” They’re focusing on the fact that the CPI data didn’t really spring any nasty surprises. It confirmed some tariff-led inflation, but the market had mostly priced that in already.
They’re highlighting five straight days of solid BTC ETF inflows, the biggest ETH inflow in a couple of weeks, and strength in things like XRP and SOL even after their ETF plans got delayed. Their argument is that traders are seeing these regulatory delays as a matter of *when*, not *if*. With the Altcoin Season Index hitting a 90-day high, QCP sees Bitcoin holding above $115k as a base for money to start moving into riskier, higher-beta assets.
Where Does That Leave Us?
So we’re left with this split. Is it fragile optimism or genuine momentum? Honestly, it probably depends on whether those ETF inflows can keep counteracting all the profit-taking that’s obviously happening. Bitcoin’s current range is a real battleground between these two ideas.
Elsewhere, ETH is testing key resistance near $4,500, helped by its own institutional demand and coins moving off exchanges. Gold’s still hanging near records, supported by those same Fed cut expectations. And in traditional markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke above 45,000 for the first time ever, while the S&P 500 also closed above a big milestone. For now, everyone seems to be waiting on the Fed.
