Onchain analytics firm Cryptoquant has released data suggesting that Bitcoin’s current cycle may not have reached its peak, despite a 50% decline from its all-time high. The firm’s 365-day PnL Index Signal continues to trend lower, which it interprets as a sign of accumulation rather than a market top.
What the Signal Says
The PnL Index blends several key onchain metrics, including the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit and loss, and the ratio of long-term to short-term holders. Cryptoquant tracks this index against its 365-day moving average to determine whether the cycle is bullish or bearish. In their framework, a depressed and falling reading typically marks the accumulation phase, not the terminal stage of a bull market.
Notably, the firm’s bull-bear cycle indicator flipped green on May 12, its first bullish signal since March 2023. However, analysts have cautioned that this indicator produced a false positive in 2022, meaning a green light alone does not guarantee a sustained uptrend.
A Market Torn Between Two Cycle Readings
The bullish interpretation faces a significant counterargument. Bitcoin printed its record high around $126,000 in October 2025 and has since been cut in half. This drawdown has convinced some analysts that the cycle top is already in, and the market is working through a conventional post-peak bear phase.
Cryptoquant’s signal implies the opposite. In their view, October’s high was not the cycle’s final word, and the current structure resembles a market still building toward its peak. If the top is behind, rallies from here are exit liquidity. If it is ahead, the current zone is accumulation.
Some traders have already bet on the latter scenario. One whale bought $98.9 million in Bitcoin at the June 5 low of $59,734 and netted a $3.5 million profit within two days as the market bounced. Bitcoin has since held above $60,000, changing hands near $62,550 at the time of writing.
That being said, onchain cycle signals are probabilistic, not prophetic, as evidenced by the 2022 false green flip. Weak or falling PnL readings alone do not guarantee a reversal; they describe holder profitability, not future demand. Macro forces from tariff headlines to Federal Reserve policy have repeatedly overridden onchain structure this year.
