Historical October Strength Meets Current Challenges
October has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, earning the nickname “Uptober” from crypto enthusiasts. Over the past ten years, Bitcoin has typically closed October with gains, with particularly strong performances in 2017 and 2021 when the cryptocurrency surged by 49% and 40% respectively.
But this year feels different somehow. The crypto market has been showing lackluster performance in recent weeks, and there are several factors working against Bitcoin as we enter October 2025. The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are weighing on the US dollar, and institutional interest seems to be waning. It’s creating a more uncertain environment than we’ve seen in previous Octobers.
Holder Retention Shows Concerning Trend
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Holder Retention Rate has been steadily declining since September 14th and continues to trend lower. It currently stands at 80.17%, down about 1% over the past 16 days. That might not sound like much, but it’s worth paying attention to.
The Holder Retention Rate basically tracks what percentage of addresses maintain their Bitcoin balance across consecutive 30-day periods. It’s a simple measure of how long people are holding onto their coins. When this rate declines, it suggests that holders are losing conviction. More investors appear to be moving coins to exchanges or liquidating positions rather than holding for the long term.
If this trend continues, it could reduce buy-side stability and make Bitcoin more vulnerable to sharper price swings in the coming weeks. I think that’s something to watch closely.
Derivatives Market Sentiment Turns Bearish
The coin’s Taker-Buy Sell Ratio has mostly recorded values below one throughout September, which confirms the bearish sentiment among derivatives traders. According to CryptoQuant’s data, it sits at 0.95 currently.
This metric measures the ratio between buy and sell volumes in Bitcoin’s futures market. Values above one indicate more buying than selling, while values below one suggest that more futures traders are distributing their holdings to prevent losses. For Bitcoin, the sustained bearish tilt in derivatives markets suggests that short sellers are becoming increasingly dominant, which strengthens the downside bias.
Unless this ratio flips back above one to show renewed buy-side pressure, October could remain challenging for Bitcoin. The derivatives market often sets the tone for spot prices, so this is significant.
Whale Activity Declines
Falling whale interest also adds to the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. According to Santiment, large investors who hold between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have reduced their holdings by 50,000 coins over the past week.
Historically, whale participation has been closely tied to Bitcoin’s rallies. These deep-pocketed players provide the liquidity and momentum needed to sustain upward moves. Their absence adds another layer of risk. Without whale demand, retail flows alone might be insufficient to drive a strong October rebound.
Price Outlook and Key Levels
Bitcoin currently trades around $113,968. If this bearish momentum holds into October, the coin could test immediate support around $111,961. If selling accelerates, the price could potentially drop to $107,557.
On the flip side, if demand recovers—fueled by improving macroeconomic conditions and renewed interest—Bitcoin could attempt to reclaim resistance at $115,892 and push toward the $119,367 mark.
It’s interesting to note that while October has historically been strong for Bitcoin, the current market dynamics suggest this year might break from tradition. The combination of declining holder retention, bearish derivatives sentiment, and reduced whale activity creates a more challenging environment than we’ve seen in previous Octobers.
Perhaps the key will be watching for any shifts in these metrics as October progresses. If holder retention stabilizes or improves, or if the derivatives market sentiment turns more positive, that could signal a potential turnaround. But for now, the data suggests caution might be warranted.
