Bitcoin’s December price drop shakes derivatives markets
Bitcoin dropped under $88,000 on Sunday morning, which seems to have put a damper on any potential year-end rally. Derivatives traders appear to be adjusting their positions, and open interest across major exchanges is showing some instability. Honestly, it looks like December might not bring the holiday cheer that some investors were hoping for.
Futures markets show cautious retreat
The numbers tell a pretty clear story. Total bitcoin futures open interest sits at 637,700 BTC, which is about $56.82 billion. That’s down 1.41% over the past day. To me, this suggests traders are quietly reducing their exposure as we head into the next week.
CME leads with 124,440 BTC, though its open interest slipped 0.61%. Binance follows closely with 121,640 BTC, showing a small 0.21% daily decline. Bybit’s futures book slid 0.93%, while OKX logged a 0.62% drop. Gate was the only exchange showing an increase with a 2.07% boost in open interest.
What’s interesting, I think, is that the broader futures curve doesn’t exactly radiate optimism. Open interest has retreated significantly from recent highs, which often happens when traders lose appetite for leverage during price stagnation.
Options markets reflect mixed sentiment
Options markets present a more complicated picture. Calls continue to dominate open interest at 64.16%, with 333,190 BTC in call exposure versus 186,160 BTC in puts. Over the last day, call volume held 55.56%, while puts captured 44.44%.
Deribit’s data shows contracts from $100,000 to $118,000 still lead the rankings, with the $100,000 strike commanding 17,774 BTC. But short-dated volume is clustering around $87,000 to $91,000, which probably reflects hedging pressure as traders adjust to current price levels.
Max-pain levels across major options venues paint a pretty clear picture. Deribit anchors around $90,000 as notional value spikes into the December 26 expiry. On Binance, max pain drifts into the mid-$110,000 range for longer-dated contracts, even though December positioning still hovers just under the six-figure mark.
Historical context and current reality
Looking at historical data adds some perspective. The fourth quarter of 2025 is currently showing -22.01%, while December is trending at -1.63% as of December 7. Both figures are still moving as the month progresses, but they’re not exactly encouraging.
Monthly returns for December have been notoriously volatile across the years—from +46.92% in 2020 to -36.57% in 2018. This particular December seems to be leaning toward the less favorable end of that spectrum.
Despite all this, derivatives traders remain resilient. High call open interest at optimistic strike prices means there are still plenty of optimistic traders out there. But with bitcoin wobbling under $88,000, the much-discussed “Santa Rally” appears increasingly unlikely to materialize this year.
