Bitcoin spent Thursday morning above $77,600, up about 1.5% over 24 hours. The move followed a dip to $76,400 during late U.S. trading, but buyers stepped in before the drop went further.
A familiar support level held
Bitfinex analysts noted that the average cost basis for active investors on the network sits at $76,350. Bitcoin came within $50 of that level before bouncing. The zone seems to have absorbed sellers who bought in February and March; many exited near breakeven instead of taking a loss.
XRP was the strongest large-cap asset, up almost 3% to $1.36. BNB and Solana each added close to 2%, with Solana still holding the $100 line. Tron rose about 1%, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE stayed flat above $82. Ether lagged the pack, trading just under $2,400. Over the past seven days, Ether is down almost 4%, Tron about 3%, XRP roughly 3%, and Bitcoin around 1%. Zcash at $817 and HYPE are the only majors with weekly gains.
Macro pressure and mixed flows
The wider market context was less comfortable. Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil sharply higher and revived inflation concerns. The ten-year Treasury yield closed just above 4.8%, its highest level since 2023. The dollar index firmed to just under 100. Equities still managed to close higher, with the S&P 500 at 7,646 and the Dow up roughly 277 points. Gold settled near $4,418.
Crypto flows tell a more cautious story. Labelled entities sent about 3,700 Bitcoin to exchanges over the past week, spot ETFs lost roughly $236 million, and stablecoin supply has stopped growing near $310 billion after expanding daily through August’s rally. Nicolai Søndergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, said that combination suggests the recovery lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation.
What to watch next
Bitfinex analysts warned about near-term risk, pointing to seasonality. September has historically been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -2.95% since 2013. They added that any pullback during the month probably leaves the odds in favor of continuation on higher timeframes, but the warning is there.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report should settle expectations for the next Federal Reserve meeting. The options market is already positioned around it. Downside protection sits between $68,000 and $75,000, covering the stretch from payrolls into the CPI release on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Upside exposure remains in calls above the current range, and perpetual leverage is well below its August peak. So while Bitcoin has clawed back above $77,500, the next few days may decide whether the move has real support behind it.
