After bitcoin’s 28% slump this year to around $62,537, there are growing signs that the wave of panic selling weighing on the market for months may finally be ending.
The first indication: bitcoin’s price held steady over the weekend even as U.S.-Iran hostilities escalated and crude prices spiked on Hyperliquid. This stability contrasts sharply with March and April, when similar geopolitical tensions and oil rallies sent the largest cryptocurrency sliding.
“$BTC held $62k through rounds of US airstrikes and a Hormuz closure, barely flinching. The weak hands look gone,” said Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute.
A second sign comes from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Last week, they pulled in a net $197.40 million of investor money — the first net inflows after eight straight weeks of outflows.
ETF flows turn positive
“The eight-week ETF outflow streak broke. One turn, not a trend, but the marginal seller is drying up,” De Mare noted, referring to investors willing to sell even as the price drops, eroding their profits. Once the marginal seller leaves the market, there’s nothing left for buyers at that price, essentially creating a floor.
Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at Nexo, made a similar point. “ETF flows confirm it from another angle. The past ten days split between inflow and outflow, netting slightly positive,” she said.
Glassnode data also shows spot selling pressure has faded. June’s net selling averaged nearly 2,000 BTC a day; July’s has slowed to just 53 BTC a day, the calmest month of 2026 outside April.
Recovery still fragile
The relative calm, however, may not indicate a rapid turnaround. The price recovery from the year’s low of $57,700 — hit earlier this month — is largely driven by derivatives traders and not spot buyers, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst.
“Demand for Bitcoin is recovering rapidly, though the growth is currently being driven mainly by retail traders in the speculative futures market. At the same time, the situation in the spot market remains less positive,” he said.
Without a strong return of buy-side liquidity, prices could remain in a sideways trend for months to come, he cautioned.
Macro data looms
Such caution is understandable ahead of macroeconomic data that may influence interest-rate decisions and overall appetite for risk. U.S. CPI for June is scheduled for release Tuesday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Congressional testimony is due this week. These events could either strengthen the recovery or derail it entirely.
