Bitcoin saw a 4.37% rally on July 14, and some analysts think this could be the first real sign of a bottom forming. The move followed a cooler-than-expected CPI report, which marked a key moment for investors. According to FedWatch data, the market now sees just a 16.6% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, down sharply from 41.7% the day before the report. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is now only six points away from entering the “Neutral” zone for the first time since mid-May.
Improving risk appetite supports Bitcoin
These signals point to growing risk appetite, giving Bitcoin a stronger macro backdrop as it tests higher resistance levels. Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto that cooler CPI prints have historically been good for Bitcoin. Over the last three years, BTC has returned an average of +2.8% after such reports. Mena said, “This may be the push we need to finally break the $64k level and push towards $66k. A break of about $66k will set us up to retest $70k and possibly even $75k by month’s end – a level we haven’t seen since late May.”
In essence, the CPI report has clearly shifted market expectations. Glassnode’s data on Bitcoin long positioning now makes more sense. The report shows long positions have climbed back to levels last seen when BTC traded around $83k, suggesting traders are aggressively rebuilding leverage long exposure as bullish sentiment returns.
On-chain fundamentals hint at stronger recovery
The bigger question is whether the improving macro backdrop is enough to confirm a bottom. If not, this spike in long positioning could just be overleveraged bets, raising the risk of a bull trap. But growing alignment between Bitcoin’s technicals and on-chain fundamentals might change that. The market is already pricing in a $100k quarter-end target for Bitcoin. Mena believes improving on-chain fundamentals support this view. He noted that Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $400m in net flows in the last week alone, and potential progress on the CLARITY Act could help. This alignment of fundamentals and technicals sets up a possible $100k push by quarter-end, with a retest of the $126k all-time high by year-end or early 2027.
On-chain data backs this. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that wallets holding at least 1 BTC have grown by nearly 0.4% since June, adding over 4,000 new holders. Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) has also seen a sharp rise in exchange outflows. Around 326 WBTC left exchanges in a single day, the largest net outflow since June. Since WBTC provides Bitcoin liquidity, these outflows suggest investors are moving holdings into DeFi protocols, reinforcing fundamental strength.
If this trend holds, Bitcoin could break above $66k soon, opening the door for a move toward $70k to $75k by month-end. The $100k target no longer seems far-fetched, given the improved macro backdrop and strengthening fundamentals.
