Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 15.5, its lowest level since the market crash triggered by the pandemic in March 2020. This technical indicator, which measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, suggests the asset is deeply oversold. In technical analysis, readings below 30 are typically seen as oversold, meaning selling pressure has been extremely intense.
The sharp decline comes after Bitcoin lost about 30% of its value over the past month. Analysts point out that similar RSI levels were recorded during the 2020 crash and a correction in February 2026. In those cases, Bitcoin rebounded around 50% and 30% respectively after hitting such lows.
Key Support Levels Under Scrutiny
Currently, the $60,000 mark is being watched closely as a critical support level. If Bitcoin can hold above this price, some analysts expect a technical recovery toward the $70,650 region. That level aligns with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which often acts as a near-term resistance or target. However, if the $60,000 support breaks, the next downside target could be in the mid-$50,000 range.
On-chain data also adds to the cautious outlook. The profit-loss ratios for short-term Bitcoin holders have dropped to historically low levels. This suggests that many recent buyers are selling at a loss, which often happens when fear takes over. Analysts say market sentiment is moving closer to panic levels.
Long-Term Holders Show Strain
Crypto analyst Scott Melker noted that roughly 5.3 million Bitcoin are currently held at a loss by long-term investors. He said this figure exceeds the levels seen during the FTX exchange collapse and is the highest amount of unrealized losses since the 2020 pandemic sell-off.
Melker also observed that market sentiment and price action are now closely aligned. He pointed out that investors were overly optimistic during the May peaks but shifted to extreme pessimism by June 3. He added that such dramatic sentiment shifts often signal market bottoms may be near, but warned this alone does not guarantee a reversal.
While these indicators may suggest a potential bounce, they are not definitive signals. The market remains under pressure, and a recovery is not certain.
This is not investment advice.
