Yesterday, several signals emerged that hinted at a possible positive day for Bitcoin’s price trend today. The overall sentiment still feels relatively negative, but things shifted slightly at one point yesterday.
The Sentiment Remains Cautious
The Fear & Greed Index stayed in the fear zone yesterday. It was just below the central neutrality line last week but started falling on Friday. This index is useful for gauging sentiment, which appears slightly negative, but it doesn’t predict the future. It measures retail sentiment, and retail investors are not always accurate. Still, the recent decline might mean these investors are wrong to be negative right now.
Positive On-Chain Signals Emerge
Three bullish on-chain signals have appeared recently, according to Santiment. For one, there are more bearish comments than bullish ones about Bitcoin circulating now, the first time since April 21. This is a positive signal because cryptocurrencies often move opposite to retail expectations. So, current pessimism among retail traders could be a good sign.
While retail investors sell, wallets holding at least 100 BTC are buying, up 11.2% from a year ago. Santiment notes this is a significant long-term trend, as these wallets are often associated with whales, institutions, and long-term holders. Historically, an increase in whale wallets signals confidence in Bitcoin’s future value and scarcity.
Also, Delphi Digital revealed that the 8% retracement in gold price from its January peak might precede a Bitcoin bull run, as has happened before, though usually over shorter time frames.
A Possible Trend Change
A trend change may have occurred between yesterday and today. A decline started last Thursday, taking Bitcoin from $82,000 down to $76,000 yesterday. It seemed the decline might continue, but it stopped a few hours after US stock markets reopened. The evening brought more interesting action: a potential new small upward trend began.
This upward trend isn’t visible in price yet, perhaps a delayed trigger. The potential change started yesterday evening but didn’t materialize with the US market close or after Asian and European markets reopened. It could materialize today when US stock markets reopen.
Whales Flip Sentiment
Starting last Friday, Bitcoin whales sold and opened new short positions. This continued yesterday after Asian markets reopened but before US markets opened. American whales were more cautious, changing their minds within hours from bearish to bullish.
A potentially bullish figure emerged late yesterday evening: US government dollars on deposit fell by $43 billion on Friday, releasing cash into markets. Some whales may have seen this data early, explaining their sudden shift. Now, markets wait for US stock markets to reopen to see if American whales stay bullish or change course again.
