Bitcoin Profitability Reaches Extreme Levels
Nearly all Bitcoin in circulation is currently profitable at current prices, and this might not be the good news it appears to be. According to analyst Ted Pillows, about 99.3% of the entire Bitcoin supply is in profit at the current market price of around $121,900. That’s almost every single Bitcoin out there.
When you look at historical patterns, this level of profitability has often preceded short-term price corrections. Pillows points out that the three previous times Bitcoin’s supply profitability exceeded 99%, the price corrected between 3% and 10%. It’s a pattern that seems to be repeating itself now.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Flows
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 63, which shows growing optimism but hasn’t reached the extreme greed levels that typically signal market tops. Analyst Darkfost describes the current mood as “optimistic but measured,” which might actually be a positive sign for continued upward movement.
Institutional interest remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing record weekly inflows of $3.2 billion in 2025. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $163.5 billion in Bitcoin, showing significant institutional backing. Citi projects another $7.5 billion in inflows by year-end, which should provide additional support.
Price Projections and Market Dynamics
Major banks are still bullish on Bitcoin’s prospects. Standard Chartered projects BTC could reach $200,000 if ETF momentum continues, while Citigroup expects Bitcoin to end 2025 near $133,000. That would represent about an 8.75% gain from current levels.
Interestingly, JPMorgan strategists note that Bitcoin appears undervalued compared to gold when adjusting for volatility. The Bitcoin-over-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin now absorbs about 1.85 times the risk capital as gold.
The Correction Question
A potential correction wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. After months of gains, a pullback could serve as a healthy reset for the market. The key factor seems to be whether sentiment remains measured rather than reaching euphoric levels.
Darkfost notes that at every previous market top, the Fear and Greed Index consistently moved into extreme greed territory above 80. With the index currently at 63, there might still be room for further gains before sentiment truly overheats.
Traders have been taking profits after prolonged rallies, which is natural behavior. The combination of strong on-chain statistics and increasing investor sentiment creates a complex picture where short-term caution might be warranted, but the longer-term outlook remains positive.
