If you’ve been watching Bitcoin’s wild ride lately, you might want to circle September 21st on your calendar. Or maybe just be ready for it. Analyst Timothy Peterson has been digging into the numbers, and he’s pointed out something that’s hard to ignore. According to his research, that specific day has been, well, pretty awful for Bitcoin’s price. Historically speaking, of course.
He suggests there’s roughly an 80% chance that Bitcoin’s value drops on September 21st. That’s a pretty strong probability, isn’t it? It’s not just a hunch, either. He’s looking at years of data that show a consistent pattern of decline on that date. The average daily loss sits at around -2.00%, which might not sound like a lot to some, but in the crypto world, that’s a notable dip. It apparently stands as the single worst day of the year for BTC.
Looking at the Historical Data
The numbers get more interesting when you see what other days are on the list. The second-worst day for Bitcoin? That’s March 22nd, with a median loss of -1.52%. And right behind it is September 24th, coming in third with a -1.50% drop. So that’s two of the three worst days happening within a single week in late September. It makes you wonder if there’s something about that time of year. Maybe it’s just a coincidence, or perhaps there’s a underlying reason we haven’t figured out yet.
Peterson frames these moves as part of a broader seasonal trend that’s been playing out for a long time. He noted that Bitcoin dropped 6.5% throughout August, which fits into this larger picture of autumnal volatility. Based on that pattern, his projection for the end of September is a price between $97,000 and $113,000.
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
Of course, the market is famously unpredictable. While we’re talking about historical patterns, it’s worth noting that at the moment this was written, Bitcoin was trading at $111,253. That’s sitting right within Peterson’s predicted range, which is… interesting, to say the least.
It’s a useful reminder that these things are cyclical. Prices go up, prices go down. Sometimes they do it on a schedule you can almost set your watch to. Other times, not so much. This kind of analysis isn’t about predicting the future with certainty. It’s more about observing what has happened before and acknowledging that it might happen again.
Still, it’s probably a good idea to remember that this is just one perspective. A lot of things can change in a day, let alone over a season. Markets are funny that way.
*This is not investment advice.
