Bitcoin funding rates are showing a rare and bearish positioning signal, even as spot prices climb higher. According to James Aitchison, founder and CIO of Caerus Global, funding rates have been running near minus 4% annualized. That means longs are being paid to hold exposure, a setup that points to heavy short positioning.
“The longs are getting paid, which is quite a rarity,” Aitchison said during a panel at Consensus Miami 2026. “On a 30-day basis, the lowest it has been this decade.”
The situation mirrors a broader disconnect in the derivatives market. In April, Bitcoin funding rates hit their most negative levels since 2023, even as BTC pushed through $75,000. Aitchison noted that similar conditions have historically preceded positive returns over 30- to 365-day periods.
Bitcoin Rebounds Amid Shifting Market Structure
Bitcoin has recovered from roughly $60,000 to the low $80,000s at the time of writing. This move has forced traders to reconsider whether old crypto-native signals still work in a market increasingly influenced by ETFs, basis trades, and Wall Street distribution.
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand has held steady through the drawdown. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.6 billion so far this month, even as short-term holders sold. That resilience has made ETF holders central to the current market structure.
Dan Backmore, chief commercial officer at Glassnode, said Bitcoin is entering a new regime as volatility falls and allocations become more strategic. “We’re witnessing the early innings of the Wall Street machine and its impact on the crypto market,” Backmore said.
Options Activity Shifts to Regulated Venues
Options are accelerating that shift. IBIT options open interest topped Deribit in April, pointing to a migration of Bitcoin derivatives activity into regulated U.S. venues. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF opened just last month, adding another large wealth-management platform to the market.
Panelists were split on whether the four-year cycle still matters. Michael Terpin, author of “Bitcoin Supercycle,” said Bitcoin could trade lower before a larger 2028-2029 supply shock. Others argued the halving cycle is losing force as Bitcoin becomes a TradFi asset.
The year-end calls reflected the division. Terpin and Backmore said Bitcoin may not reach a new high this year. Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Labs, said $250,000 is possible. Aitchison said $150,000 is a reasonable target if rate cuts return.
