Nine blockchain organizations have formed the Quantum Alliance, a group focused on getting crypto ready for future quantum computers. The coalition launched on Oct. 15 in Lisbon. Its first job is to set common standards for wallets, networks, and other infrastructure that depend on cryptography.
The group is not building another blockchain. It wants to publish open tests and migration guidance so projects can judge how prepared they are. The model is the Internet Engineering Task Force, where proposals are debated in public instead of being handed down by one company. Christopher Smith, founder and CEO of Quantus, said post-quantum cryptography will eventually just be called cryptography. That may sound blunt, but it captures the group’s view: today’s protections will not last forever.
Why 6.4 million bitcoin may be exposed
Bitcoin wallets use digital signatures to prove ownership. When some wallets spend coins, they reveal public keys that stay on the blockchain. Normal computers cannot work backward from those keys to find private keys. A powerful enough quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm might be able to do it.
The alliance estimates that 6.04 million to 6.4 million BTC are already exposed this way. That is roughly 30% of supply. About 1.1 million BTC tied to Satoshi Nakamoto’s early holdings fall into the wider discussion. Nobody can steal those coins today. The risk depends on quantum machines becoming strong and reliable enough to break the math.
Google research and the 2028 clock
Pressure is rising. Google Quantum AI said its Willow processor demonstrated “magic state cultivation,” reducing errors by a factor of 40. Researchers also reported 99.99% accuracy in specialized quantum states. These are lab results, not a working attack on Bitcoin. Still, they show steady progress.
The alliance has built a Quantum Doom Clock that points to March 2028 as an early possible window. The model tracks qubit growth and estimates when machines could reach about 856,000 physical qubits. That is not a forecast of an attack. Some researchers expect the danger in the 2030s instead.
The hard part is moving old coins
Even with better cryptography, some bitcoin may stay exposed. Coins in forgotten wallets, lost accounts, or addresses whose owners never upgrade pose a difficult question. No one can order every holder to move funds. Stablecoins, bridges, and other crypto systems face similar issues.
The founding contributors include Quantus, American Fortress, Intmax, Keystone, Midnight Foundation, Postquant Labs, Abelian, The Vault, and Hacken. For now, the threat remains theoretical. The real test is whether the industry can move millions of bitcoin before that changes.
