Pump.fun’s ICO Approaches—Will It Live Up to the Hype?

This Saturday, July 12, Solana’s popular token launchpad Pump.fun is rolling out its long-awaited ICO. The catch? Traders in the U.S. and UK won’t be allowed to participate—at least not right away. Once the sale wraps up and PUMP tokens hit exchanges, though, everyone’s wondering: will this thing actually pump, or is a dump more likely?

The token is priced at $0.004 each, with a whopping 150 billion up for grabs across six major exchanges—Bybit, Kraken, Bitget, MEXC, KuCoin, and Gate.io—plus Pump.fun’s own site. The sale runs for up to 72 hours, but if all tokens get scooped up sooner, trading could start as early as Monday, July 14.

Predictions Are All Over the Place

Some think it’ll sell out fast. Beanie, a pseudonymous VC at GM Capital, expects the ICO to close before the three-day window ends. Over on Myriad Market, predictors are even more optimistic, putting 70% odds on a sellout within the first hour. (Quick note: Myriad is run by Decrypt’s parent company, so take that as you will.)

But what happens after the sale? Matthew Nay, an analyst at Messari, suggests keeping an eye on Hyperliquid’s pre-market futures for clues. Right now, PUMP is trading there at around $0.0054—a 35% bump from the ICO price. That’s not nothing, but it’s also not the moon shot some might be hoping for.

Nay points out that an airdrop could add selling pressure, though sources say it won’t happen on launch day. Daniel Seager from Trireme Trading is cautious too. “I don’t think it’ll hit 3x or 4x like some expect,” he says. “Pump.fun has lost some ground lately, and that could weigh on sentiment.”

Market Share Shifts and Long-Term Hopes

Pump.fun has been the go-to Solana launchpad since early this year, but lately, rivals like LetsBonk have been chipping away at its dominance. Just last week, LetsBonk briefly overtook Pump.fun in daily token creations—a first since the platform’s rise.

Still, Seager isn’t writing PUMP off. He mentions the tokenomics are “favorable,” with private buyers and the team locked in for a year, meaning no sudden sell-offs from them. Solarnius, a pseudonymous investor, even called the $4 billion valuation a potential steal, planning to go big on PUMP.

Beanie, though, isn’t buying it. They call the valuation “unprecedented” and predict a drop—short-term and long-term.

Meanwhile, traders like Wirelyss are eyeing alternatives, partly due to the U.S./UK restrictions. “$4 billion feels steep,” she says. “Pump’s great, but half of Circle’s valuation? I’m not sold.”

So, will PUMP surge or stumble? Saturday’s sale might give us the first real clue—but the real test comes when trading goes live.