Market analyst Sunil Gurjal is warning that Bitcoin’s recent push above $76,000 could be a dangerous trap for retail investors. In a post on X, Gurjal argued that the bounce looks like a repeat of patterns seen before steep drops in 2022. He noted that everyday buyers are piling into the recovery, perhaps making the same mistakes they did in the last bear market.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,462, down about 0.9% in the past day after hovering near $78,000. Despite the short-term pullback, the asset has gained roughly 4.2% over the last week and is up 8.7% for the month. Still, Gurjal says these short-term recovery signals have always preceded major declines so far in 2026.
The Pattern Gurjal Is Watching
Gurjal describes a clear cycle that he believes has played out three times already this year. In his view, the structure goes like this: a fake breakout, a quick reversal, and then a dump of 10 to 14 percent—before it repeats. He warns that the current move looks like another such trap, not the start of a sustained uptrend.
The 2022 Parallel
Gurjal draws a direct comparison to 2022, when Bitcoin crashed 77% from its peak during the bear market. That cycle bottomed near $16,000 after two major collapses: the Terra network implosion in May 2022 and the FTX disaster in November 2022. Both events triggered widespread sell-offs, and false recoveries appeared multiple times before the real bottom was reached. Gurjal believes the same pattern is repeating now.
According to his illustration, Bitcoin could dip to $50,000, which would be a drop of over 35% from current levels. That might sound extreme, but he notes that a similar drawdown in 2022 eventually formed the foundation for the next bull market. After bottoming at $16,000, Bitcoin rose above $75,000 before the 2024 halving cycle. It later dipped again, but eventually climbed to a record above $126,000.
Looking Ahead for Bitcoin
Despite the bearish near-term outlook, some industry leaders remain optimistic. They project that Bitcoin could still hit $100,000 this year and even set a new all-time high around $150,000. The next halving is expected in April 2028, which would cut mining rewards to 1.5625 BTC per block. If past cycles are any guide, early gains after the halving might be slow, with stronger moves arriving later on.
Price predictions vary quite a bit. Telegaon sees an average of about $343,750 for Bitcoin after the halving, while Changelly estimates it could be closer to $140,628 by late 2028. The broad takeaway is that most analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to be higher in the future than it is now, even if there are painful dips along the way.
