Benjamin Cowen, a well-known analyst in the crypto space, has put out a new video arguing that Bitcoin is at a crucial technical point. He calls it the “Bear Market Resistance Band.” In his view, the current rally is pushing Bitcoin directly into this zone, which has historically been a tough spot for the asset.
Cowen compares the situation to patterns seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Those were all periods, he notes, that fell within midterm election years. And the data suggests Bitcoin has rarely managed to turn that resistance band into reliable support during such times. So, while price movements might feel promising to some, Cowen urges caution.
Energy Markets and Macro Headwinds
One of the more interesting parts of his analysis involves the energy market. Cowen expects energy inventories, tracked by something like the XLE index, to rise over the summer. That could create what he calls a “macro hurdle” for Bitcoin. The logic goes like this: if energy prices climb, inflationary pressures increase. That, in turn, might push the Federal Reserve to delay any interest rate cuts. And since crypto markets tend to thrive on loose monetary policy and liquidity, a delay could make the bullish case for Bitcoin much harder to sustain.
Don’t Compare This to 2019 Just Yet
A lot of investors are drawing parallels between the current market and the big rally of 2019. Cowen, however, is more measured in his take. He points out that after the 2019 rally, there was a “digestion phase” that lasted a lot longer than what we are seeing now. In his view, it is still too early to call this a sustained bull market. The market might need more time to absorb the recent gains before any real trend emerges.
What to Watch For in the Coming Weeks
Cowen predicts this tug-of-war at the resistance band will last for maybe the next week or two. He thinks we will get a clearer picture by the time June rolls around. If Bitcoin cannot muster a strong rally toward its 200-day moving average, that would be a sign of underlying weakness. For now, the market remains in a precarious spot, and the analyst advises keeping an eye on both technical levels and macro conditions.
*This is not investment advice.
