An anonymous cryptocurrency analyst known as Sherlock has taken a close look at the old “sell in May” idea for Bitcoin. The findings are a bit more nuanced than the simple saying suggests.
Classic Strategy Falls Short for Bitcoin
Sherlock’s data shows that the basic “sell in May” thesis doesn’t really produce a reliable signal for Bitcoin. Looking at data since 2018, May has closed lower in only four out of eight years. That’s not strong enough to call it a pattern. It’s a reminder that traditional market rules don’t always apply neatly to crypto.
A Stronger Signal Emerges
There is, however, a more specific variation that seems to work better. According to Sherlock’s analysis, which goes back to 2020, if Bitcoin fails to break above its April high within the first five days of May, a drop of at least 5% usually follows for the rest of the month. On average, that pullback has been around 20.6%.
Looking at past years, the results are telling: a 10% decline in 2020, a massive 47.7% drop in 2021, 26.9% in 2022, 12.5% in 2023, and 5.9% in 2024. But 2025 broke the pattern. Bitcoin managed to surpass its April peak on May 1st and then rallied 16.9% to hit $111,980 by May 22nd.
Key Level to Watch for 2026
For this year, the critical level to watch is $79,485. Sherlock warns that if Bitcoin can’t get above this price within the first five days of May, there’s a risk of a sharp sell-off. It’s not a guarantee, but the historical pattern suggests caution.
Keep in mind this is not investment advice. Just something to think about as May approaches.
