Bitcoin price dropped back toward the $77,000 level on Tuesday after failing to break above $78,000. Investors stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for later today.

Data from crypto.news shows Bitcoin (BTC) faced rejection around $80,000 on Monday. It then fell 4% to an intraday low of $75,850 on Tuesday. This decline came as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks kept investors in risk-off mode.

Buyers stepped in to push Bitcoin back to $77,800. But it still could not surpass the $80,000 mark. Market participants are now in a wait-and-see pattern before the Fed announcement.

Fed rate decision and market sentiment

Both the CME FedWatch tool and Polymarket show that odds of the Fed holding rates at 3.5% to 3.75% stand at 100%. Analysts say the market has fully priced in no rate cuts for April. The central bank’s ongoing hawkish stance has dulled demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as borrowing costs stay high.

Looking ahead, the next major event is Thursday’s Core PCE data release. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Early estimates suggest any surprise in the report could trigger significant volatility across all risk assets.

Despite the short-term dip, some analysts think the current pullback is typical ahead of major monetary policy decisions. They believe Bitcoin may still be in a strong phase, and that the consolidation could give way to renewed strength once macro clarity emerges.

Bitcoin price analysis

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has confirmed a bearish breakdown from an ascending channel that formed since late March. Historically, this pattern suggests the prior upward momentum is fading and a deeper correction may come.

The MACD indicator has printed a bearish crossover, showing short-term momentum has shifted in favor of sellers. That suggests caution for traders considering new long positions at current levels.

However, the Aroon indicator gives a mixed signal. Aroon Up remains elevated at 85.71%, while Aroon Down is still relatively low. This implies the broader uptrend hasn’t fully lost strength, and buyers might still try to maintain control.

For now, $80,000 stands as a key psychological resistance, especially with no rate cuts expected soon. If bulls manage to break above that level, next targets would be $85,000 and potentially $90,000.

On the downside, a sustained drop below $75,000 would confirm further weakness. That could push Bitcoin toward the $70,000 support zone.