Bitcoin is trading near $76,613, and its daily chart has turned up a warning that traders have seen before. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average, or GMMA, now shows price below both of its moving-average bundles. The short-term bundle has also crossed under the long-term bundle. That combination points to a bearish shift in momentum, though it is not a guarantee.
What the GMMA Is Saying
The GMMA plots two groups of moving averages. The short group tracks recent trader behavior. The long group reflects broader investor sentiment. When the short group falls below the long group, it suggests traders are selling. A cross by itself can be noisy, because sentiment changes fast. The more important check is whether the long-term group starts to turn the same way. Right now, it does. The long-term lines are squeezing together and beginning to slope lower. That suggests investors are no longer buying with much force.
Past Signals and Failed Warnings
This setup has appeared before. In late May, a similar bearish signal came before bitcoin fell below $60,000 in early June. A crossover in late January also lined up with a drop from about $90,000 to near $62,000. Still, the indicator is not reliable on its own. Bearish signals in August and September 2025 failed. The confirmation showed up, but prices turned higher soon after. That is a useful reminder that chart signals can flip.
Demand and Seasonality Are Mixed
The latest warning comes as spot bitcoin ETFs see sharp outflows and US demand looks weaker. Options activity also shows more interest in downside protection. That suggests some traders are exiting or hedging against deeper losses. Seasonality cuts the other way. Past data shows bitcoin often rallies after midterms. So the picture is mixed, not one-way.
For now, the next few days matter. If the long-term bundle keeps turning lower and ETF outflows continue, the bearish case gets stronger. If buyers step back in, the signal may join the list of failed warnings. I think the market has not fully decided yet.
