Institutional interest in Bitcoin has picked up noticeably. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust recently crossed $400 million in cumulative inflows, suggesting that at least some major players are still betting on the asset.
But despite that, Bitcoin itself hasn’t managed to reclaim the $65,000 level. It’s been hovering below that psychological mark, and the reaction from spot Bitcoin ETFs hasn’t been entirely consistent either. Cumulative net inflows for U.S. spot ETFs have reached about $51.83 billion overall, yet daily outflows of around $240 million were recorded recently. That kind of mixed signal leaves traders wondering if institutional money is enough to push prices higher.
On-chain data shows some encouraging signs
On-chain indicators suggest the market might still have room for an upward move. Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score currently sits at 0.39, which means the market value is relatively close to the realized value. Historically, lower readings of this metric have appeared near periods that were favorable for accumulation. But it’s worth noting that this indicator alone can’t confirm a market bottom — it’s just one piece of the puzzle.
Meanwhile, miners seem to be pulling back on selling. Transfers from miners to exchanges dropped to just 968 BTC, the lowest monthly reading observed in this period. When fewer coins are moved to exchanges, it reduces immediate selling pressure. That could give incoming demand more influence over price. Of course, lower transfer volumes don’t necessarily mean miners have stopped selling through other channels. Still, combined with institutional inflows, this softer selling could improve Bitcoin’s chances of recovery.
The big test: can Bitcoin break $65K?
From a technical perspective, $65,000 remains the critical resistance level. It used to be support before the May decline turned it into resistance, and every attempt to move above it since has been restricted. Right now, Bitcoin is trading below several unfilled market imbalances — the biggest one sits above $65,000. Markets sometimes revisit these inefficiencies before establishing a new trend, but there’s no guarantee those gaps will close.
A decisive move above $65,000 would signal an improving market structure. Until then, the recovery case is still unproven. Bitcoin’s Stochastic RSI is at 31, approaching the conventional oversold region below 20. That suggests momentum is weakening, though an oversold reading doesn’t automatically mean a reversal is coming.
Ultimately, institutional inflows and reduced miner transfers provide some support. But the real test for Bitcoin remains price confirmation above $65,000.
