Binance Research released its half-year 2026 review of Bitcoin and the macro environment. Bitcoin fell roughly 32% year-to-date and sat more than 50% below its October 2025 record near $126,000. It was the third straight quarterly loss.
The report frames the decline as part of a global market repricing called re-anchoring. Fed pricing was a major driver. The implied spread between expected and actual Fed funds rates moved from about -230 basis points in August 2024 to roughly +33 basis points by mid-2026. Markets now price around 80% odds of a hike by December.
Fed policy and AI spending
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh drew scrutiny in his first press conference by focusing on inflation rather than employment. Short-term Treasury yields went up, and Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction for much of the year.
AI hardware investment accounted for about 40% of first-quarter GDP growth, the first time since 2009 it surpassed consumer contributions. US equities kept rising, with the S&P 500 up 18.5% over twelve months. That rally was earnings-driven, as forward price-to-earnings multiples compressed from about 22x to 20x.
Japan added pressure. The Bank of Japan’s balance sheet contracted by ¥125.3 trillion, or 16.4%, from its 2024 peak, the largest such reduction in history. The yen still touched a 40-year low near 162 per dollar in June despite rate hikes and intervention.
Onchain data and capitulation
Onchain signals suggest deep capitulation. About 10.83 million BTC were held at an unrealized loss by the end of June, versus 9.22 million in profit. It was the first time losses outnumbered gains this cycle. The report says this, combined with the 50% drawdown and 275 days since the highs, points to a possible bottoming window into Q4 2026, though nothing is confirmed.
Bitcoin still held 57% to 60% of crypto market share in H1. When dominance dipped, money went into stablecoins or left the market. There was no sustained rotation into altcoins.
Bitcoin’s diversification test
Bitcoin underperformed every major asset class in H1, falling about 32% while US equities stayed near record highs and gold ended down around 7%. It sold off faster than equities during macro stress and missed the AI-led recovery. Binance Research ties this to Bitcoin’s ETF-era structure, where continuous trading lets it reprice rate expectations faster than traditional markets.
Demand channels reversed. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their first-ever year-to-date net outflow. June saw a record $4.5 billion pulled out, most of it from BlackRock’s IBIT. Corporate treasury buying became almost entirely dependent on Strategy. Its enterprise valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, making share issuance dilutive. The company sold 32 BTC in May and 1,363 BTC in late June.
Public miners sold at a record pace as hash price hit an all-time low. The gap between pure-play miners and those moving toward AI and high-performance computing is widening. That shift could reduce reliance on Bitcoin sales over time, though it also pulls resources from mining. Quantum-computing risk moved from theory toward planning, with draft protocol proposals now circulating.
