Bitcoin closed April in the green, posting 11.87% net growth and marking its best monthly performance so far this year. The leading cryptocurrency ended the month positive for the second consecutive month, reversing some of the deep losses from February. By early May, $BTC had climbed to $76,960.11, accruing 12.94% in gains for the second quarter to date. This has fueled bullish expectations of a price reversal, though traders remain cautious.
April breaks a losing streak
The recent monthly gains came after a five-month streak of net losses. The fear and greed index currently sits at 26, indicating that traders are still not confident enough to build large long positions. However, April achieved a reversal, moving away from the ‘extreme fear’ sentiment that dominated the previous month. Historically, April has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with only five years showing a red monthly candle. April 2025 followed that pattern, potentially paving the way for all-time highs later in the year. May, on the other hand, has been a more bearish month over a five-year timeframe, often bringing deeper losses and shocks.
Stress tests and whale accumulation
Bitcoin passed several stress tests in April, facing both macroeconomic factors and crypto-specific shocks. The month saw a record number of hacks and exploits, as Cryptopolitan reported earlier. Oil price shocks and uncertainty over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz also contributed to fearful trading. Trader interest shifted to stocks and oil futures, while Bitcoin attracted mostly whales in both spot and futures markets. The leading coin gained support from ongoing accumulation by whales and some cohorts of retail wallets. Demand also came from corporate treasuries, with Strategy performing its third-largest weekly purchase in history, adding 34,164 $BTC as of April 20.
Bitcoin dominance and options market signals
Bitcoin’s dominance recovered slightly to 58.2%, as interest in altcoins and tokens remained at historical lows. The coming months may continue to see a sentiment of Bitcoin maximalism, as the rest of the crypto market grapples with hacks and lost trust in decentralized finance lending. The options markets could be the reason for a short-term relief rally. On May 1, a total of $1.74 billion in Bitcoin options expired, along with another $394 million in Ether options. The weekly event had a put/call ratio of 1.1, suggesting cautious positioning and downside protection. Ahead of the expiry, the market was close to the maximum pain point of $76,000 per Bitcoin. Put options have now shifted to $75,500, setting up a higher level of downside protection. The biggest accumulation of call options is at $79,500 to $80,000 per Bitcoin, a level that could potentially trigger a breakout if breached. Options markets still signal cautious downside protection rather than an upcoming bull market. The weekly options expiry near maximum pain may lead to a gamma squeeze, as traders abandon attempts to push the price to the point where the most options expire worthless.
