For the first time in almost 100 years, Americans can legally place bets on who will win elections. Betting websites now let people buy and sell contracts based on whether certain politicians will win or lose. Supporters say these platforms do a better job of predicting outcomes than old-fashioned polls.
Zachary Peskowitz, a political science professor at Emory University, explained that these websites give clearer odds than regular surveys. “You can interpret a prediction market as saying there’s an 80% chance a given candidate wins,” he said. “This is an information source that the media and citizens will use. Prediction markets are likely to affect American politics in many ways.”
Campaigns adapt to real-time odds
These betting platforms are already changing how political campaigns operate. Recently, many people placed bets on the race in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. They were not only predicting the winner but also measuring how much influence Donald Trump still holds within the Republican Party. The runoff election gained nationwide attention because of Trump’s endorsement and because platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have become part of how Americans track politics.
In Kentucky, some candidates are even monitoring the odds betting markets give them during primary elections. Andra Gillespie, a political scientist, says these services work because people are more honest when they place money on what they believe will happen rather than stating who they hope wins. The betting markets seem to pick up on political circumstances that don’t get much attention, such as when politicians stay in office because no one else wants to take over.
Concerns about voter influence and insider trading
However, there is a downside. People worry that as these sites gain popularity, they will influence voter behavior rather than just anticipate it. Peskowitz warned that seeing negative prospects for your candidate might lead you to give up. The growing popularity of political betting has sparked legal and ethical problems.
Earlier this year, Kalshi prohibited lawmakers, campaign workers, and some government employees from betting on US elections due to concerns about conflicts of interest. Meanwhile, Polymarket has been accused of insider trading and suspicious betting related to President Trump’s legal troubles and political prospects. Reports say the platform has processed over 413 million bets, with more than $100 million tied to political races. These scandals raise concerns that political betting markets could be rigged, especially if insiders use private information to profit.
“There is a possibility of corruption or that this could be used for corrupt purposes,” said Gillespie. She pointed out that betting sites cannot replace regular polls because they don’t explain why people vote the way they do. “As a social scientist, I’m not just interested in who you’ll vote for, but also why you’re voting in a particular election.”
Uncertain future for political betting regulation
The rules for political betting are still being worked out. Georgia currently does not allow legal sports gambling, yet prediction markets operate in a murky area across the country. Peskowitz expects disputes between states, betting corporations, and federal agencies like the CFTC to determine the future of political betting.
For now, observers believe the runoff in Georgia’s 14th District will reveal two things: whether Trump still wields significant political power, and how important betting markets will be in future elections. The next steps by voters, campaigns, and regulators will decide if these sites benefit or harm democracy. “I think it’s too early for us to tell,” Gillespie said. “Political junkies might pay attention, but I’m not sure most people are focused on this in their everyday lives.”
